Contango & Cash

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on March 24th at 5:00pm EDT I think most of us have heard enough about oil in the last six months for a lifetime. Whether we like it or not, oil is a pretty important topic, and its price and volatility impact just about every other asset class. There seems to be some confusion about…

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The “Versus Cash” Sniff Test

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on March 10th at 6:00pm EDT Something that can be helpful on days like today, if only psychologically, is to consider how you would invest a portfolio if you were “starting from scratch.” It’s so easy to get caught up with the emotions—both positive and negative—assigned to each of your existing holdings that it can…

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13F Filings… A Day Late & A Dollar Short?

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on February 18th at 4:00pm EDT Now that hedge funds and large investors are publicly reporting their quarter-end holdings in SEC Form 13F filings, we are hearing a great deal of conjecture about the importance of said reports. Of course, investors want to see what they can learn from the best and biggest. What did they…

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Greece To Germany: “It’s Not EU, It’s Me”

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on February 11th at 10:00am EDT “The only things worth worrying about are the things nobody is worrying about.” – Unknown A good deal of ink has been spilled in the last two weeks concerning the potential exit of Greece from the eurozone and the train wreck that is bound to ensue shortly thereafter. Is…

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The Real Reason Cheap Oil is Bad for the US

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on February 2nd at 4:00pm EDT Lower oil gives our foreign competition permission to devalue their currencies. With earnings season midway through, the predominant theme is that US-based multinationals are having a hard time compensating for strength in the US Dollar versus currencies of foreign trade partners, despite strong top line growth. In other words,…

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Give The People What They Want

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on January 23rd at 9:00am EDT In addition to founding the Barnum & Bailey Circus, P.T. Barnum is also famous for vocalizing some harsh truths, like “A sucker is born every minute,” and “Give the people what they want and they will give you what you want” (where what you want is their money). Barnum…

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Themes To Watch In 2015

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on January 5th at 11:00am EDT Looking back on predictions made a year ago for 2014—whether on interest rates, equity markets, or oil prices, we can see that the general consensus does not always prove accurate. The majority of professional forecasters said interest rates had nowhere to go but up in 2014, though they couldn’t…

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Oil’s Well That Ends Well

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on December 18th at 12:00pm EDT There are five stages of selling during a severe pullback like the one we have just witnessed in oil and energy-related stocks. 1. The Facts Come to Light (Two Months Ago) Actual data points start to surface, which imply the price is too high — Oversupply (coinciding with a…

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OPEC Cuts Off Its Nose To Spite The Face Of U.S. Shale Boom

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on December 1st at 12:00pm EDT Despite the fact that oil’s precipitous decline began five months ago, it is only now that it is really front and center. At this point we all know that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) leaders met on Thanksgiving Day and agreed not to cut production (from the current…

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Go Anywhere? Or Go Anywhere But Up?

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on November 20th at 10:30am EDT I think the topic of risk has been so misunderstood among investors, large and small, that I want to explore it a bit here. After the cataclysmic disaster that was 2008-09 we saw a plethora of funds emerge with built-in risk management controls. Those were strategies focused so hard on…

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