Putin On the Ritz

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 11:00am EDT on Oct 30th, 2015 2015 has been choppy for just about every asset class, perhaps none more so than shares of anything connected to commodities. Emerging markets have suffered with weakening currencies—against a stable US Dollar—and threats (though no actual evidence) of global deflation. If growth is slowing or turning negative…

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Watch What the Fed Says, Not What It Does

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 4:00pm EST on September 14, 2015 These are the possible Fed outcomes being considered by the investment community, as I see it: 1) Fed raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate, citing “It’s time” and/or the need to have ammunition in place (i.e. the ability to lower rates) should they need it in the near future.…

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The Correct Math to Consider During Corrections

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 4:00pm EST on September 2nd, 2015 “If you lose X %, you have to make Y % to get back to even.” (Where X = 20, 25, or 33%; and the corresponding Y = 25, 33, or 50%) Have you heard someone make this argument? While it’s mathematically correct, it’s also a little misleading…

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Hope Is Not An Investment Strategy

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on August 21st at 8:00am EDT This is something clients love to hear: When I tell you that “hope is not part of an investment strategy,” I’m saying I’ve got a bulletproof plan. A plan immune to external forces and exogenous events. This is the plan nobody else has. Everybody else is probably just hoping their…

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Icahn’t Believe It’s Not Better (The Yield On HYG)

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on July 27th at 1:00pm EDT The lurking dangers of junk bonds have found their way into the headlines. Carl Icahn’s conversation with crucifixion of Blackrock’s Larry Fink last week certainly didn’t help matters. The entire exchange can be found here. People are pretty worked up. So what’s the big deal? The big deal, as…

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Greece, to Everyone: “I Can’t Live….With or Without EU”

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on July 1st at 2:30pm EDT It’s become increasingly apparent this week that Greece’s recently-elected Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, is not afraid to bite the hand that feeds him. In fact, that appears to be his primary modus operandi. Despite demonstrating an apparent willingness to accede to some of their creditors’ demands in the past…

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Fed Rate Raising Talk Raising False Fears

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on June 10th at 1:30pm EDT Everyone seems pretty concerned about when the Fed is going to “raise rates,” and what that will mean for the stock and bond markets. Determining what the stock and bond markets will do seems to be skipping a step—how about first figuring out what impact a Fed rate hike…

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Buy Low, …. And Buy Higher?

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on May 27th at 11:00am EDT One of the oldest adages in the money management business is, “Buy low, sell high.” It also happens to be far more difficult than it sounds—partly because low prices (the best times to “buy,” according to the adage) generally coincide with the lousiest news. But the second part, “Sell…

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A Day Late, And A Dollar….Short?

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on April 27th at 10:00am EDT Have we all been wrong about the US Dollar’s role in oil weakness—and, in fact, has the influence been the other way around? Is oil actually the primary driver of how much a dollar is worth globally? Two widely held beliefs regarding US dollar strength over the past eight…

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Time For U.S. CEOs To Take A European Vacation

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on April 10th at 10:00am EDT Back in October of last year, we pointed to some counterintuitive positive catalysts for European stocks — at the time, the only headlines concerning Europe were ominous, and it looked like a case of “cheap, but not cheap enough.” The points we made were: 1. Favorable foreign exchange conditions…

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