A Good Time to Play Defense?

This article was previously published on RealMoney at 2:30pm EST on March 6, 2018 It’s been an interesting start to the year. Given how strong 2017 was, coupled with tax reform that would be taking effect in 2018 (and reducing both corporate and individual tax rates for the coming year) it felt smart to anticipate some selling in January. Waiting…

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Argyle Capital Partners

The Rub Of A Record-Low VIX

This article was also published on RealMoney at 3:00pm EDT on May 10th, 2017 We last posted here in February on the topic of euphoria, or at the very least excessive complacency. The S&P 500 was about 2,330 and the Dow about 20,500 at the time. Both indices are about 2.5% higher today, and the headlines du jour concern the record-low readings we are seeing…

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Does Euphoria Come In More Than One Form?

This article was also published on RealMoney at 11:00am EDT on Feb 13, 2017 We often associate euphoria with excitement, jubilation, and excessive risk taking. People slapping each other on the back in public, complimenting one another and themselves for their genius when discussing recent stock trades. Vows to never allow a repeat of the torture and mental anguish suffered last time around.…

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Financial Media Or Fear Factory?

This article was originally published on RealMoney at 9:00am EDT on Nov 30th, 2016 There is a scene in the cult classic 2002 movie ‘Roger Dodger,’ in which Uncle Roger (played by Campbell Scott) describes his job as an advertising executive to his nephew Nick (played by Jesse Eisenberg). Paraphrasing a bit, Roger tells Nick that the first step in a successful advertising…

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The End Of The World As We Know It (& I Feel Fine)

This article was originally published on RealMoney at 9:00am EDT on Aug 16th, 2016 “Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.” – Haruki Murakami Six months ago the world was ending (for the umpteenth time since it ended in 2008-09). The world is always ending, right up until it doesn’t end. Consider that not even 2008-09 ended…

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What A Difference Three Months Can Make

This article was originally published on RealMoney Pro at 12:00pm EDT on May 16th, 2016 What a difference three months can make. In our post on February 16—three months ago today—optimism was in short supply on both Wall & Main Street. The story on a daily basis was oil, which had fallen below $30 per barrel, putting at risk the finances of just…

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What If Things Are Actually Okay?

This article was originally published on RealMoney at 7:30am EDT on March 2nd, 2016 On February 16 we published an article outlining the reasons for optimism, despite record pessimism about the economy and stock market. This article is a follow up on that piece, in a simple point-by-point format, specifically in regard to the items we discussed two weeks ago. 1. Economic Data –…

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The War of 1,812

This article was originally published on RealMoney Pro at 10:00am EDT on Feb 16th, 2016 I fully believe we are in the midst of a correction and not something worse (a recession/crash/depression/collapse). Apologies in advance; this is a long one. 1. Economic data do not support the recession story. There are a lot of headlines suggesting we (both the US and the rest…

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Bearish Sentiment — Time For Patience, Not Panic

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 10:00am EDT on Jan 25th, 2016 The current correction we are experiencing has been much scarier than others in the post-crisis era. No corner of the market has been spared. Both professional and individual investors seem to be confused about, well….just about everything, including what exactly is causing the selloff. Headlines seem somehow more ominous today…

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QE Is Alive and Well

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 10:00am EDT on Dec 28th, 2015 We hear that Quantitative Easing (i.e. fiscal stimulus) has ended and it must be assumed that without training wheels, the economy will fall down and scrape its knees on the sidewalk. How easily we forget that the economy seemed to get along okay prior to the housing/credit boom of…

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